It is optimal to be optimistic about survival

It is optimal to be optimistic about survival.

We investigate the optimal behaviour of an organism that is unable to obtain a reliable estimate of its mortality risk. In this case, natural selection will shape behaviour to be approximately optimal given the probability distribution of mortality risks in possible environments that the organism and its ancestors encountered. The mean of this distribution is the average mortality risk experien...

Is It Right to Be Wrong About the Future?

Personal predictions are often optimistically biased. This simple observation has troubling implications for psychologists, economists, and decision theorists concerned with rationality and the accuracy of self-knowledge (Armor & Taylor, 2002; Krizan & Windschitl, 2007; Sweeny, Carroll, & Shepperd, 2006). However, normative conclusions about the impropriety of optimistic bias rest on an unteste...

Admitting elderly patients to ICU: is it just about survival?

AIM: Admitting very elderly, critically ill patients to ICU is controversial. We compared our mortality data in a subgroup of elderly patients to internationally published outcomes. METHODS: Tauranga Hospital ICU retrospectively investigated their mortality outcomes for patients with septic shock. The ANZICS adult database (AORTIC), Tauranga Hospital computer records and medical records were us...

Distinguishing optimism from pessimism in older adults: is it more important to be optimistic or not to be pessimistic?

Confirmatory factor analysis revealed that the Life Orientation Test (LOT) consisted of separate Optimism and Pessimism factors among middle-aged and older adults. Although the two factors were significantly negatively correlated among individuals facing a profound life challenge (i.e., caregiving), they were only weakly correlated among noncaregivers. Caregivers also expressed less optimism th...

If it is to be, it is up to me.